Chandigarh, January 14: GOLD prices in India are on a six-year high. In February, 1996 it touched Rs 5,713 per 10 gms and on January 6, 2003, this figure, which has been constantly fluctuating, reached a high of Rs 5,730 per 10 gms. The most obvious reasons for this increase are the major developments taking place internationally, including the threat of war between Iraq and USA and the problems with the nuclear policies of North Korea.

In the past, gold prices used to reduce the moment the dollar stabilised. But a lot seems to have changed over the last few years. Says president of the Chandigarh Jewellers’ Association Anil Talwar: ‘‘The US currency has been losing its value. Lots of people have burnt their fingers investing in US stock. Technically, if the dollar decreases, the rates of gold rises but this has not happened so in the future too the prices are expected to rise.’’

World over, the major quotations for all companies are dollar-based. Since the war rumours are pretty strong and the United States is all set to attack Iraq, the price of the dollar will fall further. ‘‘But then, to form a peak, the prices will have to fall a bit. But what I feel is they will stabilise somewhere close to Rs 6,200 per 10 gms,’’ says Talwar.

Another reason according to him is the coming into its own of the OPEC. For years, the OPEC members were influenced by the Americans. But now, post September 11, the scenario has undergone an overhaul. The oil-producing countries have recognised the motives of the US. And even though they may not agree with Iraq, they are wary of the US. All this will result in the increase of oil prices very soon. Says Talwar: ‘‘The moment prices of oil rise, the Sheikhs mint money. And what do they do with the money? the belief is that they invest in gold, so immediately the prices of gold rise.’’ But, he adds, the buying will not decrease much, as the Indian market is the largest consumer of gold. According to him, the marriage season will compel the people to buy even if the prices are high.